Algar 1–0 Unión Molinense: Result & Stats

Algar

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unión Molinense

2/25/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar27%

×Draw26%

Unión Molinense48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlgarExpected goals in this matchUnión Molinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.53

Algar

1.07

Unión Molinense

1.53

Unión Molinense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

1.18

creates per match

1.18

1.88

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Algar

1.18

Unión Molinense

1.18

allows per match

Algar

1.88

Unión Molinense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Algar+0.00on par

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Unión Molinense →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Algar or draw

52%

Algar or Unión Molinense

74%

Draw or Unión Molinense

73%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+

10%

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals

66%

Algar 2+ goals

29%

Algar 3+ goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

78%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

45%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)

36%

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Algar scores more

27%

level

26%

Unión Molinense scores more

48%

Unión Molinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff