Unión Molinense 4–2 Águilas II: Result & Stats

Unión Molinense

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Águilas II

12/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Unión Molinense48%

×Draw27%

Águilas II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión MolinenseExpected goals in this matchÁguilas II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.97

Unión Molinense

1.45

Águilas II

0.97

Unión Molinense creates 49% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.87

creates per match

1.03

0.90

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Unión Molinense

1.87

Águilas II

1.03

allows per match

Unión Molinense

0.90

Águilas II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Molinense ↓

Águilas II →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unión Molinense or draw

75%

Unión Molinense or Águilas II

73%

Draw or Águilas II

52%

Winning margin

Unión Molinense wins by 2+

24%

Águilas II wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Molinense 1+ goals

77%

Unión Molinense 2+ goals

42%

Unión Molinense 3+ goals

18%

Águilas II 1+ goals

62%

Águilas II 2+ goals

25%

Águilas II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Molinense (draw refunded)

66%

Águilas II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Molinense at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.90 · 67 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Molinense attack 1.87 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.45

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Unión Molinense defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Unión Molinense scores more

48%

level

27%

Águilas II scores more

25%

Unión Molinense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Unión Molinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 4–2 Águilas II

Unión Molinense beat Águilas II 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas in Molina de Segura.

Unión Molinense vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Unión Molinense 4–2 Águilas II