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Águilas II vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Águilas II
Águilas II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
3/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Campo de fútbol Muñoz Calero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Águilas II46%
×Draw27%
Unión Molinense27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Águilas II
1.42
Unión Molinense
1.03

Águilas II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 67 away

creates per match

Águilas II
1.88
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

Águilas II
0.88
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

Águilas II+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas II ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Águilas II or draw
73%
Águilas II or Unión Molinense
73%
Draw or Unión Molinense
54%

Winning margin

Águilas II wins by 2+
22%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Águilas II 1+ goals
76%
Águilas II 2+ goals
41%
Águilas II 3+ goals
17%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
64%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
28%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Águilas II (draw refunded)
63%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas II attack 1.88 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + Águilas II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Águilas II scores more
46%
level
27%
Unión Molinense scores more
27%

Águilas II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Águilas II 0 – 1 Unión Molinense

Unión Molinense beat Águilas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol Muñoz Calero in Murcia.