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Union Mauer vs Simmeringer SC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Union Mauer
Union Mauer
FT
2 – 1
Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
11/4/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 12Sportplatz Union Mauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Union Mauer65%
×Draw19%
Simmeringer SC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mauer
2.18
Simmeringer SC
0.94

Union Mauer creates 132% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Union Mauer
2.45
Simmeringer SC
1.02

allows per match

Union Mauer
0.86
Simmeringer SC
1.91

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par
Simmeringer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

Simmeringer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw
85%
Union Mauer or Simmeringer SC
81%
Draw or Simmeringer SC
35%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+
42%
Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals
89%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
64%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
37%
Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
61%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
24%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)
81%
Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.86 · 58 matches

Simmeringer SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 2.45 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.18

Simmeringer SC attack 1.02 + Union Mauer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Union Mauer scores more
65%
level
19%
Simmeringer SC scores more
15%

Union Mauer at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Union Mauer 2–1 Simmeringer SC

Union Mauer beat Simmeringer SC 2-1 in Landesliga - Wien on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Mauer in Wien.