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Simmeringer SC vs Union Mauer — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
FT
0 – 0
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
6/1/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 27Sportplatz Simmering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Simmeringer SC24%
×Draw22%
Union Mauer54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simmeringer SC
1.21
Union Mauer
1.92

Union Mauer creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Simmeringer SC
1.46
Union Mauer
2.03

allows per match

Simmeringer SC
1.80
Union Mauer
0.97

finishing

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simmeringer SC ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Simmeringer SC or draw
46%
Simmeringer SC or Union Mauer
78%
Draw or Union Mauer
76%

Winning margin

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
10%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
70%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
34%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
12%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
85%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
57%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
31%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simmeringer SC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simmeringer SC attack 1.46 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Simmeringer SC scores more
24%
level
22%
Union Mauer scores more
54%

Union Mauer at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simmeringer SC vs Union Mauer

Simmeringer SC and Union Mauer drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Wien on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Simmering in Wien.