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Union Mauer vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Union Mauer
Union Mauer
FT
0 – 0
Post
Post
3/19/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 18Sportplatz Union Mauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Union Mauer72%
×Draw16%
Post12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Mauer
2.62
Post
0.99

Union Mauer creates 165% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

creates per match

Union Mauer
2.45
Post
1.12

allows per match

Union Mauer
0.86
Post
2.79

finishing

Union Mauer+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Mauer ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Union Mauer or draw
88%
Union Mauer or Post
84%
Draw or Post
28%

Winning margin

Union Mauer wins by 2+
50%
Post wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Mauer 1+ goals
93%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
73%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
48%
Post 1+ goals
63%
Post 2+ goals
26%
Post 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Mauer (draw refunded)
85%
Post (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Mauer at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.86 · 58 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Mauer attack 2.45 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.62

Post attack 1.12 + Union Mauer defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Union Mauer scores more
72%
level
16%
Post scores more
12%

Union Mauer at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Mauer vs Post

Union Mauer and Post drew 0-0 in Landesliga - Wien on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Union Mauer in Wien.