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Post vs Union Mauer — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Post
Post
FT
0 – 3
Union Mauer
Union Mauer
9/3/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 3Sportplatz Post

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Post20%
×Draw21%
Union Mauer59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Post
1.08
Union Mauer
2.02

Union Mauer creates 87% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Post
1.20
Union Mauer
2.03

allows per match

Post
2.02
Union Mauer
0.97

finishing

Post+0.00on par
Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Post ↓

Union Mauer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Post or draw
41%
Post or Union Mauer
79%
Draw or Union Mauer
80%

Winning margin

Post wins by 2+
7%
Union Mauer wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Post 1+ goals
66%
Post 2+ goals
29%
Post 3+ goals
10%
Union Mauer 1+ goals
87%
Union Mauer 2+ goals
60%
Union Mauer 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Post (draw refunded)
25%
Union Mauer (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Post at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Post attack 1.20 + Union Mauer defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Union Mauer attack 2.03 + Post defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Post scores more
20%
level
21%
Union Mauer scores more
59%

Union Mauer at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Post 0–3 Union Mauer

Union Mauer beat Post 3-0 in Landesliga - Wien on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Post in Wien.