Union Mauer vs Leobendorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
Union Mauer39%
Leobendorf34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Mauer creates 10% more chances
Season form · 31 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Mauer ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Mauer at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches
Leobendorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.40 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Mauer attack 1.26 + Leobendorf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33
Leobendorf attack 1.36 + Union Mauer defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Union Mauer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Union Mauer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Parndorf
Gloggnitz
Krems / RehbergLeobendorf
Oberwart
SV Horn
Traiskirchen
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Fach-Donaufeld
Wiener SC
Wiener Viktoria
Donau
Favoritner ACUnion Mauer
Neusiedl
Retz
TWL ElektraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Union Mauer host Leobendorf on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Ost 2018/2019 season.
Union Mauer 5 – 2 Leobendorf
Union Mauer beat Leobendorf 5-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 26, 2024.
Goals: A. Necina (2' pen), F. Hauer (15', 90+1'), T. Komornyik (23', 53'), P. Kurz (58'), A. Hromov (66').
The match was played at Sportplatz Union Mauer in Wien.