Leobendorf 0–0 Union Mauer: Result & Stats

Leobendorf

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Union Mauer

11/1/2025

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 14Franz Haas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Leobendorf50%

×Draw23%

Union Mauer26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeobendorfExpected goals in this matchUnion Mauer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.21

Leobendorf

1.77

Union Mauer

1.21

Leobendorf creates 46% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 31 away

1.60

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Leobendorf

1.60

Union Mauer

1.13

allows per match

Leobendorf

1.29

Union Mauer

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leobendorf+0.00on par

Union Mauer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leobendorf ↓

Union Mauer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Leobendorf or draw

74%

Leobendorf or Union Mauer

77%

Draw or Union Mauer

50%

Winning margin

Leobendorf wins by 2+

28%

Union Mauer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leobendorf 1+ goals

83%

Leobendorf 2+ goals

53%

Leobendorf 3+ goals

26%

Union Mauer 1+ goals

70%

Union Mauer 2+ goals

34%

Union Mauer 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leobendorf (draw refunded)

66%

Union Mauer (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leobendorf at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 98 matches

Union Mauer away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leobendorf attack 1.60 + Union Mauer defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Union Mauer attack 1.13 + Leobendorf defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leobendorf scores more

50%

level

23%

Union Mauer scores more

26%

Leobendorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leobendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Leobendorf

Union

Manager: L. Fürhauser

Manager: F. Sattler