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Union Magdalena vs Real Santander — Primera B 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Santander
Real Santander
8/31/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 8Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Union Magdalena61%
×Draw24%
Real Santander15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.71
Real Santander
0.72

Union Magdalena creates 138% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 119 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.78
Real Santander
0.76

allows per match

Union Magdalena
0.68
Real Santander
1.64

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Real Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Real Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
85%
Union Magdalena or Real Santander
76%
Draw or Real Santander
39%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
35%
Real Santander wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
82%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
51%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
24%
Real Santander 1+ goals
51%
Real Santander 2+ goals
16%
Real Santander 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
80%
Real Santander (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.68 · 79 matches

Real Santander away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.64 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.78 + Real Santander defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Real Santander attack 0.76 + Union Magdalena defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
61%
level
24%
Real Santander scores more
15%

Union Magdalena at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Union Magdalena 4–0 Real Santander

Union Magdalena beat Real Santander 4-0 in Primera B on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.