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Real Santander vs Union Magdalena — Primera B 2018

Real Santander
Real Santander
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
3/16/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 8Estadio Villa Concha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Real Santander33%
×Draw28%
Union Magdalena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Santander
1.10
Union Magdalena
1.24

Union Magdalena creates 13% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 85 away

creates per match

Real Santander
1.13
Union Magdalena
1.28

allows per match

Real Santander
1.20
Union Magdalena
1.08

finishing

Real Santander+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Santander ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Santander or draw
61%
Real Santander or Union Magdalena
72%
Draw or Union Magdalena
67%

Winning margin

Real Santander wins by 2+
13%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Santander 1+ goals
67%
Real Santander 2+ goals
30%
Real Santander 3+ goals
10%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
71%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
35%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Santander (draw refunded)
45%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Santander at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 127 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Santander attack 1.13 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Real Santander defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Santander scores more
33%
level
28%
Union Magdalena scores more
39%

Union Magdalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Santander vs Union Magdalena

Real Santander beat Union Magdalena 2-0 in Primera B on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Villa Concha in Piedecuesta.