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Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
5/12/2026Primera BPrimera B · Apertura Quadrangular - 4Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Magdalena56%
×Draw25%
Real Cartagena19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.60
Real Cartagena
0.81

Union Magdalena creates 98% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 162 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.86
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Union Magdalena
0.70
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
81%
Union Magdalena or Real Cartagena
75%
Draw or Real Cartagena
44%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
30%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
80%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
47%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
22%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
56%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
19%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
75%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.70 · 86 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.86 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Union Magdalena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
56%
level
25%
Real Cartagena scores more
19%

Union Magdalena at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena

Union Magdalena beat Real Cartagena 3-0 in Primera B on May 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.