Real Cartagena 2–1 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Union Magdalena

5/9/2026

Primera B · Apertura Quadrangular - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Real Cartagena42%

×Draw27%

Union Magdalena32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.17

Real Cartagena

1.38

Union Magdalena

1.17

Real Cartagena creates 18% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 85 away

1.68

creates per match

1.28

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.68

Union Magdalena

1.28

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Union Magdalena

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

68%

Real Cartagena or Union Magdalena

73%

Draw or Union Magdalena

58%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

19%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

75%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

40%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

16%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

69%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

33%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

57%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 163 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

42%

level

27%

Union Magdalena scores more

32%

Real Cartagena at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff