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Union Magdalena vs Quindio — Primera B 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Quindio
Quindio
2/27/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 5Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Magdalena54%
×Draw26%
Quindio21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.52
Quindio
0.83

Union Magdalena creates 83% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 153 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.86
Quindio
0.96

allows per match

Union Magdalena
0.70
Quindio
1.18

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Quindio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
79%
Union Magdalena or Quindio
74%
Draw or Quindio
46%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
28%
Quindio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
78%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
45%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
20%
Quindio 1+ goals
56%
Quindio 2+ goals
20%
Quindio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
72%
Quindio (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.70 · 86 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.18 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.86 + Quindio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.52

Quindio attack 0.96 + Union Magdalena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
54%
level
26%
Quindio scores more
21%

Union Magdalena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Union Magdalena 2–2 Quindio

Union Magdalena and Quindio drew 2-2 in Primera B on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.