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Quindio vs Union Magdalena — Primera B 2018

Quindio
Quindio
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
5/26/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Quindio41%
×Draw28%
Union Magdalena31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quindio
1.25
Union Magdalena
1.06

Quindio creates 18% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 85 away

creates per match

Quindio
1.41
Union Magdalena
1.28

allows per match

Quindio
0.84
Union Magdalena
1.08

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quindio or draw
69%
Quindio or Union Magdalena
72%
Draw or Union Magdalena
59%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+
18%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals
71%
Quindio 2+ goals
36%
Quindio 3+ goals
13%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
65%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
29%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)
56%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 153 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.41 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Quindio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Quindio scores more
41%
level
28%
Union Magdalena scores more
31%

Quindio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quindio vs Union Magdalena

Union Magdalena beat Quindio 2-1 in Primera B on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Armenia.