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Union Magdalena vs Llaneros — Copa Colombia 2019

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Llaneros
Llaneros
6/15/2025Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 1st Round - 5Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Magdalena46%
×Draw30%
Llaneros24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.22
Llaneros
0.78

Union Magdalena creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.63
Llaneros
0.56

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.00
Llaneros
0.81

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
76%
Union Magdalena or Llaneros
70%
Draw or Llaneros
54%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
21%
Llaneros wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
70%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
34%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
12%
Llaneros 1+ goals
54%
Llaneros 2+ goals
18%
Llaneros 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
66%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.63 + Llaneros defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.22

Llaneros attack 0.56 + Union Magdalena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
46%
level
30%
Llaneros scores more
24%

Union Magdalena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Union Magdalena 0–0 Llaneros

Union Magdalena and Llaneros drew 0-0 in Copa Colombia on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.