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Llaneros vs Union Magdalena — Primera B 2018

Llaneros
Llanerosadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
12/15/2024Primera BPrimera B · Championship - FinalEstadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Llaneros41%
×Draw28%
Union Magdalena31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros
1.27
Union Magdalena
1.07

Llaneros creates 19% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 85 away

creates per match

Llaneros
1.45
Union Magdalena
1.28

allows per match

Llaneros
0.87
Union Magdalena
1.08

finishing

Llaneros+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw
69%
Llaneros or Union Magdalena
72%
Draw or Union Magdalena
59%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+
18%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros 2+ goals
36%
Llaneros 3+ goals
14%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
66%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
29%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)
57%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.87 · 134 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.45 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Llaneros defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Llaneros scores more
41%
level
28%
Union Magdalena scores more
31%

Llaneros at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Llaneros 1–0 Union Magdalena

Llaneros beat Union Magdalena 1-0 in Primera B on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte - Rey Pelé in Villavicencio.