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Union Magdalena vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
5/5/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 19Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Union Magdalena41%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Bogota31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.27
Internacional de Bogota
1.06

Union Magdalena creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 171 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.13
Internacional de Bogota
0.90

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.22
Internacional de Bogota
1.41

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
69%
Union Magdalena or Internacional de Bogota
72%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
59%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
18%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
72%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
36%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
14%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
65%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
29%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
57%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.13 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Union Magdalena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
41%
level
28%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
31%

Union Magdalena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Union Magdalena 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Union Magdalena and Internacional de Bogota drew 1-1 in Primera A on May 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.