Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Union Magdalena

Internacional de Bogota

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Magdalena

J. Sarmiento 50'

8/1/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Internacional de Bogota50%

×Draw27%

Union Magdalena23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.90

Internacional de Bogota

1.46

Union Magdalena

0.90

Internacional de Bogota creates 62% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 26 away

1.28

creates per match

0.73

1.06

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.28

Union Magdalena

0.73

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.06

Union Magdalena

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

77%

Internacional de Bogota or Union Magdalena

73%

Draw or Union Magdalena

50%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

25%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

77%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

43%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

18%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

59%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

23%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

68%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Union Magdalena defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union Magdalena attack 0.73 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

50%

level

27%

Union Magdalena scores more

23%

Internacional de Bogota at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Mattalia

Union Magdalena · G

7.7

Match Events

-5'

Dilan Ortiz

16'

Joaquín Mattalia

44'

M. Martinez← J. Contreras

50'

J. Sarmiento↳ Urrego Hector

52'

Royscer Colpa

63'

M. Angel Amaya Pena← B. Montano

64'

S. Mayo← J. Masllorens

64'

J. Bolivar← J. Micolta Piedahita

69'

J. Giraldo← J. Mercado

73'

J. Valencia← M. Monaco

78'

D. Pena← K. Parra Atehortua

78'

J. Congo← R. R. Colpa Bolano

78'

J. Aleman← R. Marquez

90+5'

Fabián Cantillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalUnion

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

0.77Expected Goals (xG)0.97

3Corners4

7Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target4

7Off Target2

1Blocked4

7Inside Box9

5Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

496Total Passes346

426Accurate Passes258

86%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1