Internacional de Bogota 4–1 Union Magdalena

Internacional de Bogota

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Union Magdalena

D. Riascos 82' (pen)

D. Camacho 43', 39'

D. Polanco 37'

R. Márquez 23'

10/21/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Internacional de Bogota50%

×Draw27%

Union Magdalena23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.89

Internacional de Bogota

1.44

Union Magdalena

0.89

Internacional de Bogota creates 62% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

1.22

creates per match

0.73

1.05

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.22

Union Magdalena

0.73

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.05

Union Magdalena

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

77%

Internacional de Bogota or Union Magdalena

73%

Draw or Union Magdalena

50%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

25%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

76%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

42%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

18%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

59%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

22%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

68%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.22 + Union Magdalena defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.44

Union Magdalena attack 0.73 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

50%

level

27%

Union Magdalena scores more

23%

Internacional de Bogota at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

P. Lima

Internacional de Bogota · M

8.0

Match Events

7'

Alain Guerrero

21'

David Camacho

23'

R. Márquez

24'

Ricardo MárquezGoal confirmed

37'

D. Polanco↳ P. Lima

39'

D. Camacho↳ P. Sabbag

40'

Carlos Bejarano

43'

D. Camacho↳ P. Sabbag

45+2'

Pablo SabbagGoal confirmed

46'

Daniel Polanco

65'

A. Correa← F. Chaverra

65'

J. Mercado← A. Spina

65'

J. Del Rio← A. Guerrero

69'

I. Camargo← D. Chávez

70'

S. Motta← P. Sabbag

70'

B. Agrón← D. Polanco

75'

Pablo Lima

80'

Pablo LimaPenalty awarded

82'

D. RiascosPenalty

83'

Duvier Riascos

86'

F. Gil← D. Camacho

86'

K. Salazar← P. Lima

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalUnion

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots9

5Corners3

19Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots9

7On Target4

5Off Target4

1Blocked1

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

214Total Passes354

145Accurate Passes276

68%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0