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Union Magdalena vs Bogota FC — Primera B 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
7/25/2024Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 1Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Union Magdalena60%
×Draw23%
Bogota FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.74
Bogota FC
0.78

Union Magdalena creates 123% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 138 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.86
Bogota FC
0.86

allows per match

Union Magdalena
0.70
Bogota FC
1.61

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
84%
Union Magdalena or Bogota FC
77%
Draw or Bogota FC
40%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
34%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
82%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
52%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
25%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
54%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
18%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
79%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.70 · 86 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.86 + Bogota FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bogota FC attack 0.86 + Union Magdalena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
60%
level
23%
Bogota FC scores more
16%

Union Magdalena at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Bogota FC

Union Magdalena beat Bogota FC 3-2 in Primera B on July 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.