Bogota FC 0–2 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Bogota FC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Union Magdalena

2/2/2024

Primera B · Apertura - 1Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Bogota FC34%

×Draw27%

Union Magdalena39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.28

Bogota FC

1.19

Union Magdalena

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 85 away

1.29

creates per match

1.28

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.29

Union Magdalena

1.28

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.28

Union Magdalena

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

61%

Bogota FC or Union Magdalena

73%

Draw or Union Magdalena

66%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

14%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

70%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

33%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

12%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

72%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

37%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

47%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 139 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Bogota FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bogota FC scores more

34%

level

27%

Union Magdalena scores more

39%

Union Magdalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff