Union Magdalena vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Union Magdalena61%
Barranquilla16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union Magdalena creates 129% more chances
Season form · 86 home / 135 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Union Magdalena ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.70 · 86 matches
Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Union Magdalena attack 1.86 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74
Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Union Magdalena defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
Union Magdalena at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
Quindio
Patriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
Envigado
Bogota FCUnion Magdalena
Popayan
Tigres FCBarranquilla
Huila
Orsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Union Magdalena host Barranquilla on Tuesday, 20 February 2024 at 23:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Primera B: Union Magdalena 1–3 Barranquilla
Barranquilla beat Union Magdalena 3-1 in Primera B on February 20, 2024.
Goals: M. Bacca (12', 57'), J. Sarmiento (64'), M. Carabalí (77').
The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.