Barranquilla 1–1 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Barranquilla

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Magdalena

J. Torres 69'

O. Aragon 61'

8/12/2024

Primera B · Clausura - 4Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Barranquilla35%

×Draw28%

Union Magdalena37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarranquillaExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.20

Barranquilla

1.15

Union Magdalena

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 85 away

1.21

creates per match

1.28

1.11

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Barranquilla

1.21

Union Magdalena

1.28

allows per match

Barranquilla

1.11

Union Magdalena

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw

63%

Barranquilla or Union Magdalena

72%

Draw or Union Magdalena

65%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+

14%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals

68%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

32%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

11%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

70%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

34%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

48%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Union Magdalena defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Union Magdalena attack 1.28 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barranquilla scores more

35%

level

28%

Union Magdalena scores more

37%

Union Magdalena at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Higgins← H. García

53'

61'

65'

67'

67'

M. Agámez← S. Caballero

67'

M. Bacca← R. Caraballo

69'

J. Torres

70'

Juan Giraldo← O. Aragon

70'

R. Blanco← F. Cantillo

70'

V. Sanchez← J. Sarmiento

75'

D. Calvo

75'

J. Torres

80'

J. Alemán← C. Sención

85'

V. Sanchez

90+2'

M. Agamez

90+4'

C. Copete← M. Carabalí

Barranquilla

Union

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Flórez

46'▲A. Higgins←▼H. García

67'▲D. Calvo←▼S. Acuña

67'▲M. Agámez←▼S. Caballero

67'▲M. Bacca←▼R. Caraballo

90+4'▲C. Copete←▼M. Carabalí

Barranquilla substitutes

HigginsCalvoAgámezBaccaCopeteSantanderHerazo

Manager: J. Pinto

70'▲Juan Giraldo←▼O. Aragon

70'▲R. Blanco←▼F. Cantillo

70'▲V. Sanchez←▼J. Sarmiento

80'▲J. Alemán←▼C. Sención

Union Magdalena substitutes

GiraldoBlancoSanchezAlemánEscobarOrtízWallens