Union Magdalena 2–1 Atletico Nacional

Union Magdalena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

G. Torres 87'

R. Márquez 36' (pen)

J. Aguirre 56'

10/7/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 16Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Union Magdalena33%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Union Magdalena

1.11

Atletico Nacional

1.23

Atletico Nacional creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 193 away

1.14

creates per match

1.23

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.14

Atletico Nacional

1.23

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.23

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

61%

Union Magdalena or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

67%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

67%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

30%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 193 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Nacional attack 1.23 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

33%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

G. Torres

Union Magdalena · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

Juan Felipe Aguirre

18'

Ricardo Márquez

32'

Anthony Bedoya CaicedoPenalty confirmed

34'

Juan Angulo

34'

Nelson Deossa

36'

R. MárquezPenalty

41'

Óscar Perea

52'

Jean Colorado

55'

Jhon Duque← N. Deossa

56'

J. Aguirre

59'

Édier Ocampo

66'

I. Camargo← R. Márquez

66'

A. González← D. Vega

72'

T. Ángel← B. Palacios

72'

Jader← Ó. Perea

79'

C. Sención← J. Colorado

79'

A. Mejía← J. Mercado

84'

Jefferson Duque

84'

M. Cantera← D. Pabón

84'

E. Ramírez← Jefferson Duque

87'

90+2'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionAtletico

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots11

3Corners2

17Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target3

4Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

240Total Passes292

177Accurate Passes217

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls7

5Yellow Cards5

6Offsides1