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Atletico Nacional vs Union Magdalena — Primera A 2018

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
4/5/2025Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%
×Draw23%
Union Magdalena15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.75
Union Magdalena
0.73

Atletico Nacional creates 140% more chances

Season form · 192 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.83
Union Magdalena
0.63

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
0.83
Union Magdalena
1.67

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Union Magdalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
85%
Atletico Nacional or Union Magdalena
77%
Draw or Union Magdalena
38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
35%
Union Magdalena wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
25%
Union Magdalena 1+ goals
52%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
17%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
80%
Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 192 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.83 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
62%
level
23%
Union Magdalena scores more
15%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 1–0 Union Magdalena

Atletico Nacional beat Union Magdalena 1-0 in Primera A on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.