Union Magdalena 1–0 Atletico Nacional

Union Magdalena

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

A. Aguilar 15'

2/24/2019

Primera A · Apertura - 6Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Union Magdalena33%

×Draw28%

Atletico Nacional39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union MagdalenaExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Union Magdalena

1.11

Atletico Nacional

1.23

Atletico Nacional creates 11% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 194 away

1.14

creates per match

1.22

1.23

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Union Magdalena

1.14

Atletico Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Union Magdalena

1.23

Atletico Nacional

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw

61%

Union Magdalena or Atletico Nacional

72%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

67%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

13%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

67%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

30%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

10%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

35%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

46%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.08 · 194 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.14 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Atletico Nacional attack 1.22 + Union Magdalena defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Magdalena scores more

33%

level

28%

Atletico Nacional scores more

39%

Atletico Nacional at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Y. Gómez

Union Magdalena · D

7.6

Match Events

13'

Abel Aguilar

15'

A. Aguilar

46'

L. Mosquera← L. Arias

60'

Y. Velásquez← F. Charrupí

63'

M. Torres← A. Guzmán

64'

Jean Lucas Rivera

71'

J. Pereira← H. Luna

80'

Y. Mena← Hanyen Palacios

89'

Brayan Correa

89'

B. Correa← Lucas Sotero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionAtletico

Overview

59%Possession41%

10Total Shots4

5Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots4

4On Target2

2Off Target2

4Blocked0

3Inside Box3

7Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

410Total Passes282

337Accurate Passes184

82%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1