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Union Magdalena vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
J. Sarmiento 76'
R. Marquez 50' (pen)
F. Molina 36'
W. Morelo 12'
M. Ramirez 5'
10/4/2025Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 14Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Union Magdalena39%
×Draw28%
Águilas Doradas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.22
Águilas Doradas
1.10

Union Magdalena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 168 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.13
Águilas Doradas
0.98

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.22
Águilas Doradas
1.31

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
67%
Union Magdalena or Águilas Doradas
72%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
61%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
70%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
34%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
12%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
67%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
30%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
54%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.13 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Águilas Doradas attack 0.98 + Union Magdalena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
39%
level
28%
Águilas Doradas scores more
33%

Union Magdalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
M. RamirezÁguilas DoradasÁguilas Doradas · M
8.2

Match Events

5'
M. Ramirez↳ W. Morelo
9'
Freddy Molina
12'
W. Morelo↳ M. Ramirez
13'
Wilson MoreloGoal confirmed
14'
Harrinson Mancilla
21'
Jhon Lerma
35'
Mateo Puerta
36'
F. Molina↳ J. Mercado
46'
D. Murillo← N. Ramos
50'
R. MarquezPenalty
54'
Freddy Molina
54'
Freddy Molina
56'
F. Charales← M. Ramirez
56'
J. Pineda← H. Mancilla
57'
D. Lozano← J. Caballero
61'
J. Sarmiento← J. Contreras
62'
J. Penaloza← J. Lerma
68'
E. Lastre← R. Hinojosa
69'
Fabián CantilloCard upgrade
70'
Fabián Cantillo
72'
B. Palacio← M. Puerta
72'
J. Obregon← F. Lozano
73'
Nicolás Lara
76'
J. Sarmiento
81'
R. R. Colpa Bolano← R. Marquez
90+4'
José Mercado
90+5'
Fabián Suárez

Possession

47%Union

Shots

15Union

Pass accuracy

50%Union

Statistics

UnionÁguilas
Overview
47%Possession53%
15Total Shots10
7Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target4
7Off Target4
4Blocked2
5Inside Box8
10Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
299Total Passes336
235Accurate Passes270
79%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls13
4Yellow Cards4
2Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Águilas Doradas

Union Magdalena beat Águilas Doradas 3-2 in Primera A on October 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Ramirez (5'), W. Morelo (12'), F. Molina (36'), R. Marquez (50' pen), J. Sarmiento (76').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.