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Union Magdalena vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Union Magdalena
Union Magdalena
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
4/3/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 11Estadio Sierra Nevada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Union Magdalena39%
×Draw28%
Águilas Doradas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Magdalena
1.21
Águilas Doradas
1.09

Union Magdalena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 170 away

creates per match

Union Magdalena
1.13
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Union Magdalena
1.22
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Union Magdalena+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Magdalena ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Magdalena or draw
67%
Union Magdalena or Águilas Doradas
72%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
61%

Winning margin

Union Magdalena wins by 2+
17%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Magdalena 1+ goals
70%
Union Magdalena 2+ goals
34%
Union Magdalena 3+ goals
12%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
66%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
30%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)
54%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Magdalena at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Magdalena attack 1.13 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Union Magdalena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Union Magdalena scores more
39%
level
28%
Águilas Doradas scores more
33%

Union Magdalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Union Magdalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Magdalena vs Águilas Doradas

Union Magdalena beat Águilas Doradas 3-1 in Primera A on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Sierra Nevada in Santa Marta.