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Union Macomb vs South Bend Lions — USL League Two 2018

Union Macomb
Union Macomb
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
South Bend Lions
South Bend Lions
6/22/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 11Swinehart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Union Macomb43%
×Draw21%
South Bend Lions36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Macomb
2.13
South Bend Lions
1.94

Union Macomb creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Union Macomb
1.63
South Bend Lions
1.50

allows per match

Union Macomb
2.37
South Bend Lions
2.64

finishing

Union Macomb+0.00on par
South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Macomb ↓

South Bend Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Union Macomb or draw
64%
Union Macomb or South Bend Lions
79%
Draw or South Bend Lions
57%

Winning margin

Union Macomb wins by 2+
25%
South Bend Lions wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Union Macomb 1+ goals
88%
Union Macomb 2+ goals
63%
Union Macomb 3+ goals
35%
South Bend Lions 1+ goals
86%
South Bend Lions 2+ goals
58%
South Bend Lions 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Union Macomb (draw refunded)
54%
South Bend Lions (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Macomb at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

South Bend Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Macomb attack 1.63 + South Bend Lions defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

South Bend Lions attack 1.50 + Union Macomb defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Macomb scores more
43%
level
21%
South Bend Lions scores more
36%

Union Macomb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Macomb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Union Macomb 6–0 South Bend Lions

Union Macomb beat South Bend Lions 6-0 in USL League Two on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Swinehart Stadium in Shelby Township, Michigan.