South Bend Lions 0–1 Union Macomb: Result & Stats

South Bend Lions

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Macomb

6/15/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 9Saint Joseph High School Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

South Bend Lions44%

×Draw23%

Union Macomb33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South Bend LionsExpected goals in this matchUnion Macomb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.50

South Bend Lions

1.76

Union Macomb

1.50

South Bend Lions creates 17% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 18 away

1.52

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

South Bend Lions

1.52

Union Macomb

1.33

allows per match

South Bend Lions

1.67

Union Macomb

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Bend Lions+0.00on par

Union Macomb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Bend Lions ↓

Union Macomb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

South Bend Lions or draw

67%

South Bend Lions or Union Macomb

77%

Draw or Union Macomb

56%

Winning margin

South Bend Lions wins by 2+

23%

Union Macomb wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

South Bend Lions 1+ goals

83%

South Bend Lions 2+ goals

52%

South Bend Lions 3+ goals

26%

Union Macomb 1+ goals

78%

Union Macomb 2+ goals

44%

Union Macomb 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

South Bend Lions (draw refunded)

57%

Union Macomb (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Bend Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Union Macomb away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Bend Lions attack 1.52 + Union Macomb defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Union Macomb attack 1.33 + South Bend Lions defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

South Bend Lions scores more

44%

level

23%

Union Macomb scores more

33%

South Bend Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "South Bend Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff