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Union La Calera vs Union Espanola — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Union Espanola
Union Espanola
11/24/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 28Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Union La Calera43%
×Draw26%
Union Espanola31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.46
Union Espanola
1.19

Union La Calera creates 23% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 120 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.38
Union Espanola
1.19

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.19
Union Espanola
1.55

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Union Espanola+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Union Espanola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
69%
Union La Calera or Union Espanola
74%
Draw or Union Espanola
57%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
21%
Union Espanola wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
77%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
43%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
18%
Union Espanola 1+ goals
70%
Union Espanola 2+ goals
33%
Union Espanola 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
58%
Union Espanola (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Union Espanola away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + Union Espanola defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Union Espanola attack 1.19 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union La Calera scores more
43%
level
26%
Union Espanola scores more
31%

Union La Calera at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union La Calera 4–0 Union Espanola

Union La Calera beat Union Espanola 4-0 in Primera División on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.