Union Espanola 3–1 Union La Calera: Result & Stats

Union Espanola

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union La Calera

7/19/2025

Primera División · Round 16Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Union Espanola42%

×Draw25%

Union La Calera33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union EspanolaExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.29

Union Espanola

1.50

Union La Calera

1.29

Union Espanola creates 16% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 127 away

1.64

creates per match

1.12

1.46

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Union Espanola

1.64

Union La Calera

1.12

allows per match

Union Espanola

1.46

Union La Calera

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Espanola+0.00on par

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Espanola ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Union Espanola or draw

67%

Union Espanola or Union La Calera

75%

Draw or Union La Calera

58%

Winning margin

Union Espanola wins by 2+

21%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Union Espanola 1+ goals

78%

Union Espanola 2+ goals

44%

Union Espanola 3+ goals

19%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

72%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

37%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Union Espanola (draw refunded)

56%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Espanola at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 121 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Espanola attack 1.64 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.50

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Union Espanola defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Espanola scores more

42%

level

25%

Union La Calera scores more

33%

Union Espanola at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Espanola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff