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Union La Calera vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
A. Vilches 70', 18'
B. Arce 83', 51'
4/22/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 1Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union La Calera38%
×Draw25%
LDU de Quito37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.46
LDU de Quito
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.33
LDU de Quito
0.83

allows per match

Union La Calera
2.00
LDU de Quito
1.58

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
63%
Union La Calera or LDU de Quito
75%
Draw or LDU de Quito
62%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
18%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
77%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
43%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
18%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
76%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
41%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
51%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

LDU de Quito attack 0.83 + Union La Calera defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union La Calera scores more
38%
level
25%
LDU de Quito scores more
37%

Union La Calera at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. VilchesUnion La CaleraUnion La Calera · F
8.3

Match Events

18'
A. Vilches
37'
G. Castellani
43'
M. Zunino
51'
B. Arce↳ P. Perlaza
65'
L. Amarilla← C. Martínez
70'
A. Vilches
74'
A. Martínez← Y. Oyanedel
77'
D. Reasco← L. Ayala
77'
J. Espinoza← L. Piovi
78'
J. Quinteros← M. Zunino
81'
V. González← A. Vilches
83'
B. Arce↳ J. Espinoza
88'
P.
89'
J. Quinteros
90+1'
M. Cavalleri← E. Valencia

Possession

59%Union

Shots

14Union

Pass accuracy

52%Union

Statistics

UnionLDU
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots9
2Corners2
16Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots9
4On Target3
9Off Target3
1Blocked3
9Inside Box3
5Outside Box6
Passing
59%Possession41%
550Total Passes368
451Accurate Passes281
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Union La Calera vs LDU de Quito

Union La Calera and LDU de Quito drew 2-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 22, 2021.

Goals: A. Vilches (18', 70'), B. Arce (51', 83').

Union La Calera controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.