LDU de Quito 5–2 Union La Calera: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Union La Calera

B. Arce 60', 58'

L. Amarilla 33', 28'

M. Fernández 15' (OG)

S. Sáez 90+2', 54'

5/28/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group G - 6Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito76%

×Draw14%

Union La Calera10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.98

1.04

LDU de Quito

2.98

Union La Calera

1.04

LDU de Quito creates 187% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

2.29

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.29

Union La Calera

1.33

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.75

Union La Calera

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–19%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

90%

LDU de Quito or Union La Calera

86%

Draw or Union La Calera

24%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

56%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

95%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

79%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

56%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

65%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

28%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

88%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.29 + Union La Calera defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

Union La Calera attack 1.33 + LDU de Quito defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

76%

level

14%

Union La Calera scores more

10%

LDU de Quito at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Arce

LDU de Quito · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

M. FernándezOwn goal

28'

L. Amarilla↳ A. Muñoz

33'

L. Amarilla

46'

G. Castellani← B. Liuzzi

46'

J. Vargas← E. Valencia

46'

S. Ramírez← M. Cavalleri

54'

S. Sáez↳ J. Vargas

58'

B. Arce

60'

B. Arce↳ J. Quinteros

63'

J. Espinoza← J. Alcivar

64'

C. Martínez← A. Muñoz

64'

A. Moreno← M. Fernández

72'

F. Ventura← J. Quinteros

72'

M. Zunino← L. Amarilla

80'

M. Corozo← A. Ordóñez

90+2'

S. Sáez↳ N. Orellana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUUnion

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots12

5Corners4

4Fouls2

Shots

20Total Shots12

10On Target6

7Off Target2

3Blocked4

12Inside Box8

8Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

577Total Passes405

497Accurate Passes334

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

4Fouls2

1Offsides2