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Union La Calera vs Huachipato — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huachipato
Huachipato
7/29/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 17Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Union La Calera45%
×Draw26%
Huachipato29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.48
Huachipato
1.14

Union La Calera creates 30% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 128 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.38
Huachipato
1.09

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.19
Huachipato
1.59

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Huachipato+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Huachipato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
71%
Union La Calera or Huachipato
74%
Draw or Huachipato
55%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
22%
Huachipato wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
77%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
43%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
19%
Huachipato 1+ goals
68%
Huachipato 2+ goals
32%
Huachipato 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
61%
Huachipato (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Huachipato away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.59 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + Huachipato defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Huachipato attack 1.09 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union La Calera scores more
45%
level
26%
Huachipato scores more
29%

Union La Calera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union La Calera 2–1 Huachipato

Union La Calera beat Huachipato 2-1 in Primera División on July 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.