Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huachipato vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
8/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Huachipato45%
×Draw27%
Union La Calera29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
1.40
Union La Calera
1.06

Huachipato creates 32% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.45
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

Huachipato
1.00
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
71%
Huachipato or Union La Calera
73%
Draw or Union La Calera
55%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
21%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
75%
Huachipato 2+ goals
41%
Huachipato 3+ goals
17%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
65%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
29%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
61%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 127 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Huachipato scores more
45%
level
27%
Union La Calera scores more
29%

Huachipato at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Huachipato 1–0 Union La Calera

Huachipato beat Union La Calera 1-0 in Primera División on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero in Talcahuano.