Union La Calera 0–1 Deportes Limache

Union La Calera

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Limache

D. Castro 77'

11/30/2025

Primera División · Round 29Nicholas chahuan Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Union La Calera48%

×Draw24%

Deportes Limache28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.25

Union La Calera

1.70

Deportes Limache

1.25

Union La Calera creates 36% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 23 away

1.35

creates per match

1.30

1.20

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.35

Deportes Limache

1.30

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.20

Deportes Limache

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

72%

Union La Calera or Deportes Limache

76%

Draw or Deportes Limache

52%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

25%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

82%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

51%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

24%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

71%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

36%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

63%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 120 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.35 + Deportes Limache defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.70

Deportes Limache attack 1.30 + Union La Calera defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union La Calera scores more

48%

level

24%

Deportes Limache scores more

28%

Union La Calera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Fritz

Deportes Limache · D

7.9

Match Events

56'

Diego Ulloa

71'

A. Encinas← F. Lobos

77'

D. Castro↳ L. Guerra

79'

F. Yanez← M. Maturana

79'

80'

84'

90+6'

90+2'

D. Catalan← D. Castro

90+2'

G. Pacheco← B. Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionDeportes

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots14

4Corners4

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

3On Target7

8Off Target6

1Blocked1

3Inside Box7

9Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

365Total Passes383

278Accurate Passes306

76%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1