Deportes Limache 0–1 Union La Calera

Deportes Limache

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union La Calera

S. Saez 63'

6/14/2025

Primera División · Round 14Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Deportes Limache59%

×Draw22%

Union La Calera19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.96

Deportes Limache

1.87

Union La Calera

0.96

Deportes Limache creates 95% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

2.01

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Deportes Limache

2.01

Union La Calera

0.95

allows per match

Deportes Limache

0.97

Union La Calera

1.73

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Deportes Limache-0.31scores less

Union La Calera+0.05on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

81%

Deportes Limache or Union La Calera

78%

Draw or Union La Calera

41%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

34%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

85%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

56%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

29%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

62%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

25%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

75%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.97 · 10 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 2.01 + Union La Calera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.87

Union La Calera attack 0.95 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

59%

level

22%

Union La Calera scores more

19%

Deportes Limache at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Pena Jorge

Union La Calera · G

8.0

Match Events

15'

37'

45'

57'

59'

C. Insaurralde← F. Yanez

59'

E. De Los Santos← I. S. Mesias Gonzalez

59'

F. Lobos← J. Saldias

63'

S. Saez↳ C. Insaurralde

68'

M. Sandoval← B. Silva

82'

M. Maturana← J. E. Mendez Gonzalez

88'

H. Salgado← M. Llanten

88'

A. Jara← F. Romero

90'

Mario Sandoval

90'

Mario SandovalRed card cancelled

90+6'

Jorge Peña

90+6'

F. Lopez← C. Moya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportesUnion

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots10

1.77Expected Goals (xG)0.90

5Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target2

8Off Target4

2Blocked4

8Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

413Total Passes334

312Accurate Passes255

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0