Union La Calera 2–3 D. Melipilla: Result & Stats

Union La Calera

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

D. Melipilla

10/31/2021

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union La Calera50%

×Draw25%

D. Melipilla25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union La CaleraExpected goals in this matchD. Melipilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.09

Union La Calera

1.63

D. Melipilla

1.09

Union La Calera creates 50% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.19

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Union La Calera

1.38

D. Melipilla

1.00

allows per match

Union La Calera

1.19

D. Melipilla

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par

D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

D. Melipilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw

75%

Union La Calera or D. Melipilla

75%

Draw or D. Melipilla

50%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+

26%

D. Melipilla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals

80%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

48%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

22%

D. Melipilla 1+ goals

66%

D. Melipilla 2+ goals

30%

D. Melipilla 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

66%

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + D. Melipilla defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

D. Melipilla attack 1.00 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union La Calera scores more

50%

level

25%

D. Melipilla scores more

25%

Union La Calera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff