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D. Melipilla vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
7/24/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

D. Melipilla41%
×Draw26%
Union La Calera33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
1.40
Union La Calera
1.22

D. Melipilla creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 127 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.44
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

D. Melipilla
1.31
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
67%
D. Melipilla or Union La Calera
74%
Draw or Union La Calera
59%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
19%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
75%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
41%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
17%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
70%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
34%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
56%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.44 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + D. Melipilla defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
41%
level
26%
Union La Calera scores more
33%

D. Melipilla at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: D. Melipilla 3–3 Union La Calera

D. Melipilla and Union La Calera drew 3-3 in Primera División on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.