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Union La Calera vs Cobresal — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Cobresal
Cobresal
S. Saez 35'
F. Pozzo 29'
K. Mendez 8'
A. Nadruz 45'
2/9/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 2Municipal Nicolas Chahuan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Union La Calera47%
×Draw23%
Cobresal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.82
Cobresal
1.42

Union La Calera creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.15
Cobresal
1.66

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.17
Cobresal
2.49

finishing

Union La Calera+0.68scores more
Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Cobresal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
70%
Union La Calera or Cobresal
77%
Draw or Cobresal
53%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
26%
Cobresal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
84%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
54%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
27%
Cobresal 1+ goals
76%
Cobresal 2+ goals
41%
Cobresal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
61%
Cobresal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.15 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Union La Calera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union La Calera scores more
47%
level
23%
Cobresal scores more
30%

Union La Calera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
K. MendezUnion La CaleraUnion La Calera · M
9.3

Match Events

8'
K. Mendez↳ D. Gutierrez
22'
Agustin NadruzGoal cancelled
29'
F. Pozzo↳ K. Mendez
35'
S. Saez↳ K. Mendez
39'
Juan Manuel Requena
45+3'
R. Huerta← J. Fuentes
45'
A. Nadruz↳ B. A. Carvallo U.
55'
Franco Bechtholdt
60'
Julián Brea
62'
Y. Leiva← J. Soto
69'
A. Encinas← B. Oyarzo Munoz
69'
C. Moya← S. Saez
79'
Rodrigo Sandoval
80'
C. Gutierrez← J. Requena
80'
M. Campos← F. Pozzo
90+3'
Yerko Leiva

Possession

49%Union

Shots

14Union

Pass accuracy

50%Union

Statistics

UnionCobresal
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots9
3Corners6
16Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots9
5On Target1
6Off Target5
3Blocked3
7Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
397Total Passes396
312Accurate Passes312
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Union La Calera vs Cobresal

Union La Calera beat Cobresal 3-1 in Primera División on February 9, 2026.

Goals: K. Mendez (8'), F. Pozzo (29'), S. Saez (35'), A. Nadruz (45').

Cobresal controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Municipal Nicolas Chahuan in La Calera.