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Union La Calera vs Cobresal — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cobresal
Cobresal
Pablo Parra 45+4' (pen)
David Romero 9'
Franco Soldano 4'
11/10/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Union La Calera47%
×Draw23%
Cobresal30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
1.82
Cobresal
1.42

Union La Calera creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.15
Cobresal
1.66

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.17
Cobresal
2.49

finishing

Union La Calera+0.68scores more
Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Cobresal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
70%
Union La Calera or Cobresal
77%
Draw or Cobresal
53%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
26%
Cobresal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
84%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
54%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
27%
Cobresal 1+ goals
76%
Cobresal 2+ goals
41%
Cobresal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
61%
Cobresal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.15 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Union La Calera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union La Calera scores more
47%
level
23%
Cobresal scores more
30%

Union La Calera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Pablo ParraUnion La CaleraUnion La Calera · M
7.9

Match Events

4'
Franco Soldano↳ Pablo Parra
9'
David Romero
27'
Guillermo Pacheco
31'
Pablo Parra
33'
Nelson Sepúlveda
42'
Alejandro Henríquez← Agustín Álvarez
45+4'
Pablo ParraPenalty
45+6'
Pablo ParraGoal confirmed
45+2'
Francisco Alarcón
61'
Jorge Peña
65'
Matías Cavalleri← Renato Huerta
65'
Luciano Arnijas← Pablo Parra
67'
Gastón Lezcano
67'
Rodrigo Sandoval
67'
Rodrigo Sandoval
67'
Rodrigo Sandoval
71'
Ignacio Pacheco← Franco Lobos
72'
Alejandro Henríquez
76'
Benjamin Valenzuela← Gastón Lezcano

Possession

44%Union

Shots

14Union

Pass accuracy

48%Union

Statistics

UnionCobresal
Overview
44%Possession56%
14Total Shots10
1Corners5
7Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots10
4On Target4
9Off Target5
1Blocked1
8Inside Box8
6Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
304Total Passes385
234Accurate Passes316
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls12
3Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Primera División: Union La Calera 3–0 Cobresal

Union La Calera beat Cobresal 3-0 in Primera División on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Franco Soldano (4'), David Romero (9'), Pablo Parra (45+4' pen).

Cobresal controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.