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Union La Calera vs Cobreloa — Primera División 2018

Union La Calera
Union La Calera
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cobreloa
Cobreloa
3/12/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 4Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union La Calera60%
×Draw21%
Cobreloa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union La Calera
2.02
Cobreloa
1.03

Union La Calera creates 96% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 15 away

creates per match

Union La Calera
1.38
Cobreloa
0.87

allows per match

Union La Calera
1.19
Cobreloa
2.67

finishing

Union La Calera+0.00on par
Cobreloa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union La Calera ↓

Cobreloa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Union La Calera or draw
81%
Union La Calera or Cobreloa
79%
Draw or Cobreloa
40%

Winning margin

Union La Calera wins by 2+
36%
Cobreloa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union La Calera 1+ goals
87%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
60%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
33%
Cobreloa 1+ goals
64%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
28%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Union La Calera (draw refunded)
76%
Cobreloa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union La Calera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

Cobreloa away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union La Calera attack 1.38 + Cobreloa defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.02

Cobreloa attack 0.87 + Union La Calera defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Union La Calera scores more
60%
level
21%
Cobreloa scores more
19%

Union La Calera at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union La Calera vs Cobreloa

Cobreloa beat Union La Calera 2-0 in Primera División on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in La Calera.