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Cobreloa vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Cobreloa
Cobreloa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
8/10/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 19Estadio Zorros del Desierto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cobreloa38%
×Draw26%
Union La Calera36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cobreloa
1.34
Union La Calera
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 127 away

creates per match

Cobreloa
1.33
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

Cobreloa
1.47
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

Cobreloa+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobreloa ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cobreloa or draw
64%
Cobreloa or Union La Calera
74%
Draw or Union La Calera
62%

Winning margin

Cobreloa wins by 2+
17%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cobreloa 1+ goals
74%
Cobreloa 2+ goals
39%
Cobreloa 3+ goals
15%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
72%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
37%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cobreloa (draw refunded)
52%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobreloa at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobreloa attack 1.33 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Cobreloa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cobreloa scores more
38%
level
26%
Union La Calera scores more
36%

Cobreloa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cobreloa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cobreloa vs Union La Calera

Cobreloa beat Union La Calera 2-0 in Primera División on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto in Calama.