Union Innsbruck 1–3 Münster: Result & Stats

Union Innsbruck

FT

1 – 3

Münster

6/8/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 28Sportplatz Fenner Areal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Union Innsbruck48%

×Draw20%

Münster32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union InnsbruckExpected goals in this matchMünster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.79

Union Innsbruck

2.23

Münster

1.79

Union Innsbruck creates 25% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

2.16

creates per match

1.17

2.41

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Union Innsbruck

2.16

Münster

1.17

allows per match

Union Innsbruck

2.41

Münster

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Innsbruck ↓

Münster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Union Innsbruck or draw

68%

Union Innsbruck or Münster

80%

Draw or Münster

52%

Winning margin

Union Innsbruck wins by 2+

28%

Münster wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Union Innsbruck 1+ goals

89%

Union Innsbruck 2+ goals

65%

Union Innsbruck 3+ goals

38%

Münster 1+ goals

83%

Münster 2+ goals

53%

Münster 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)

60%

Münster (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Innsbruck at home — creates 2.16, concedes 2.41 · 44 matches

Münster away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Innsbruck attack 2.16 + Münster defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.23

Münster attack 1.17 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Innsbruck scores more

48%

level

20%

Münster scores more

32%

Union Innsbruck at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff