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Münster vs Union Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Münster
Münster
FT
6 – 1
Union Innsbruck
Union Innsbruck
7/31/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 2Sportplatz Münster

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Münster58%
×Draw19%
Union Innsbruck23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Münster
2.52
Union Innsbruck
1.54

Münster creates 64% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

creates per match

Münster
2.07
Union Innsbruck
1.45

allows per match

Münster
1.63
Union Innsbruck
2.98

finishing

Münster+0.00on par
Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Münster ↓

Union Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Münster or draw
77%
Münster or Union Innsbruck
81%
Draw or Union Innsbruck
42%

Winning margin

Münster wins by 2+
38%
Union Innsbruck wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Münster 1+ goals
92%
Münster 2+ goals
71%
Münster 3+ goals
45%
Union Innsbruck 1+ goals
79%
Union Innsbruck 2+ goals
45%
Union Innsbruck 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Münster (draw refunded)
72%
Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Münster at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Union Innsbruck away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.98 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Münster attack 2.07 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.52

Union Innsbruck attack 1.45 + Münster defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Münster scores more
58%
level
19%
Union Innsbruck scores more
23%

Münster at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Münster vs Union Innsbruck

Münster beat Union Innsbruck 6-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Münster in Münster.