Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Huaral vs U. San Martin — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U. San Martin
U. San Martin
7/29/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Union Huaral45%
×Draw26%
U. San Martin29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.51
U. San Martin
1.15

Union Huaral creates 31% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 41 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
U. San Martin
1.20

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
U. San Martin
1.39

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

U. San Martin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
71%
Union Huaral or U. San Martin
74%
Draw or U. San Martin
55%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
23%
U. San Martin wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
78%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
44%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
19%
U. San Martin 1+ goals
68%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
32%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
61%
U. San Martin (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + U. San Martin defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

U. San Martin attack 1.20 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Union Huaral scores more
45%
level
26%
U. San Martin scores more
29%

Union Huaral at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Huaral vs U. San Martin

Union Huaral and U. San Martin drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros in Chancay.