U. San Martin 0–1 Union Huaral: Result & Stats

U. San Martin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Huaral

5/9/2023

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

U. San Martin42%

×Draw26%

Union Huaral32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. San MartinExpected goals in this matchUnion Huaral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

U. San Martin

1.44

Union Huaral

1.23

U. San Martin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 66 away

1.23

creates per match

1.32

1.13

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

U. San Martin

1.23

Union Huaral

1.32

allows per match

U. San Martin

1.13

Union Huaral

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Union Huaral →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw

68%

U. San Martin or Union Huaral

74%

Draw or Union Huaral

58%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+

20%

Union Huaral wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals

76%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

42%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

18%

Union Huaral 1+ goals

71%

Union Huaral 2+ goals

35%

Union Huaral 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

57%

Union Huaral (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

U. San Martin scores more

42%

level

26%

Union Huaral scores more

32%

U. San Martin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff