Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Union Huaral vs Sport Victoria — Segunda División 2018

Union Huaral
Union Huaral
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Victoria
Sport Victoria
5/20/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros (Chancay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Union Huaral64%
×Draw21%
Sport Victoria15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Huaral
1.97
Sport Victoria
0.81

Union Huaral creates 143% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 25 away

creates per match

Union Huaral
1.63
Sport Victoria
0.52

allows per match

Union Huaral
1.10
Sport Victoria
2.32

finishing

Union Huaral+0.00on par
Sport Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Huaral ↓

Sport Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Huaral or draw
85%
Union Huaral or Sport Victoria
79%
Draw or Sport Victoria
36%

Winning margin

Union Huaral wins by 2+
39%
Sport Victoria wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Union Huaral 1+ goals
86%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
58%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
31%
Sport Victoria 1+ goals
56%
Sport Victoria 2+ goals
19%
Sport Victoria 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Union Huaral (draw refunded)
81%
Sport Victoria (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Huaral at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Sport Victoria away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Huaral attack 1.63 + Sport Victoria defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.97

Sport Victoria attack 0.52 + Union Huaral defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Union Huaral scores more
64%
level
21%
Sport Victoria scores more
15%

Union Huaral at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Union Huaral will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Huaral 1–0 Sport Victoria

Union Huaral beat Sport Victoria 1-0 in Segunda División on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros (Chancay).